Octadeck Strategies for Niagara and Rama
by Rob McGarvey
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Books written about Blackjack seldom even mention games played from eight decks of cards, six being the usual number of decks. Being a Blackjack player in southern Ontario means the most favourable game you can find is the eight deck games at either Casino Niagara, or Casino Rama. A player using Basic Strategy is at a disadvantage of .47% at the beginning of the game. This is the best game to play simply for this reason, compared to a disadvantage of over 1% for Baccarat, 3% to 4% for the Poker games, over 5% for Roulette, and between 10% and 20% for the slot machines. In other words, for every dollar you bet playing Blackjack, you can expect to lose about 1/2 a cent. Now if you know how to count or track cards, you can expect to win instead of lose because you know when the advantage has become yours.
Having spent hours upon hours counting down these eight deck shoes, I have won overall, but been disillusioned on a few occasions. At these times I went back to studying the game in great detail, wondering if there was some angle I had not understood properly, or if there was a strategy alteration mentioned for an eight deck game I had missed in my extensive reading on the subject. I came back on these occasions with the same information. The difference between a six deck and an eight deck game has been calculated to be negligible. Once the number of decks hits six, nothing really changes. The big differences are between one and two decks, two and four decks, and four and six decks. Increasing the number of decks beyond six just changes how often the dealer has to shuffle. The disadvantage levels off at .6%. The fact that a player can double any first two cards after splitting pairs decreases the disadvantage to about .47%. Any bad days I have experienced are just the normal fluctuations in playing games of chance.
A counter knows that when the normal disadvantage of the game has been eliminated by a positive count it is time to increase the amount being bet to an amount either relative to how positive the count is, the size of the players bank, the table limit, or something in between. Each positive card (2-7) removed eliminates an average of .45% of the games advantage divided by the number of decks left to be played. This means eight more positive than negative cards (10s etc) have to be removed from the eight decks. The number of positive cards needed to be removed decreases as the number of decks left to be played decreases. For example, when there are four decks left only four more positive than negative cards have to be removed to eliminate the games advantage over the player. A counter usually keeps track of this count with a running count and a true count. The running count is the difference between the positive and negative cards, and the true count is the running count divided by the number of decks left to be played. Often the running count doesn't get high enough for you to bother dividing by the number of decks, but I have also had positive counts of over +20 with one deck left to be played. Those are the shoes that make counting worth all the work.
Counting cards is really keeping track of something called regression to the mean. When more small cards have been seen, we know more big ones are about to be seen. The larger a deviation from the normal pattern of events the cards have made, the more violent the return to normal the following events can be expected to be. When the small cards and large cards are coming out fairly evenly, there is little or no deviation or regression. All a player can do is keep betting the table minimum until things become uneven in the right direction. This is the conclusion that all of my reading and playing lead me to. I was not satisfied and kept working on this game.
Each true count the game reaches is equal to about .5% advantage for the player. +1 means the .47% advantage has been wiped out. +2 gives the player a .5% advantage. +3 give the player a 1% advantage, about as much as the casino has over the Baccarat player. At a true count of +3 the player is smart to be betting 1% of their bank. With a $5,000 bank this is equal to a $50 bet. Betting the true count minus 1 in green $25 chips meets this criteria. At +2 one green chip is the right bet. What about +1 and below?
I began to think about the running count that sometimes never gets high enough to equal a true count of +1. Obviously when the count is negative betting the table minimum is the right bet, but how could I take advantage of a positive running count, still taking advantage of regression to the mean? By also betting the running count in $5 red chips.
This means once the running count is +4 a bet of two $5 chips is placed. Bet the running count divided by two in red chips up to four red chips. That means the running count is +8 and the running count can be a useful true count and bets can be made in green $25 chips. When the number of decks left is down to four, bet the running count in red chips without dividing by two. At this point a true count and betting green chips becomes more likely.
All of this does go against the sensible mathematical truth that recommends a minimum bet until a positive count has been reached. This means a player will spend most of the time playing a minimum bet while waiting for a positive count. This is frustrating and boring for a counter. The rest of the players are not aware of the true odds of the game and bet as they feel while the counter, understanding the cold truth of this money versus odds game whiles away hand after hand waiting to place large bets that have more than a 50% chance of being won. The dealers and pit bosses know very well this is what counters do and are looking for this to happen to spot them.
I think the important facts here are two main things. The first one is defining what a minimum bet is. At a table with limits from $5 to $500 the minimum is $5. A higher minimum can be played by the player at their own discretion, say $25. This is exactly what I am talking about when I recommend betting the running count in $5 chips, staying below the $25 limit. The other important fact is that you are not sitting there betting $5 for long periods of time without changing your bet, then suddenly betting $25 chips, possibly quite a few of them, and then go back to $5 bets when the count dies down. You are changing your bet based on the running count within your minimum bet and everyone gets used to you changing your bets. You also get to enjoy playing your favourite game while you wait for positive counts.
The other type of bet variation within a predetermined minimum bet that produces money is a betting progression based on the running count as well. The progression is doubling a bet after a loss, or a win, or both, only within the minimum bet. This is done only when the running count is positive but not high enough to be converted into a true count. A $5 bet is followed by a $10, and then a $20 or $25 bet. More often than not, a win will occur during this progression and produce a $5 or $10 win. If the top bet of $25 is hit and there is a loss, play the $25 until you either break even or win one unit, then start over again.
The only way to win money is to bet it. Blackjack is the best chance you will ever get in a casino. Use Basic Strategy, count the cards, bet your money on the count, and try one of these additional betting strategies with the confidence that you are not taking any irrational chances with your money.
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