Card Clumping - The Other Side of the Coin
by Rob McGarvey
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In my efforts to understand for myself as much about the game of Blackjack and how to make money at it, I offered in exchange for the information, to review the material sent to me about what is called Clumping. Clumping is a part of what is being called Alternative Blackjack. It is a departure from the Basic Strategy/Card Counting world many professional players cling to, and to be honest, I was very sceptical about it. I was having trouble getting solid mathematical information to support it's merits and I am sure I was beginning to be a pain in the rear of the people I know that swear by Clumping as a winning playing strategy. This all mixed in with a few people that claimed to be able to beat Baccarat with a system made me a bit prejudiced of the entire group, but that was unfair to a few of the excellent players I had met there.
The information I was given started off with the usual basic understanding of how Blackjack is played. From here, instead of the usual focus on the 10 valued cards, the Ace, and the opposing 2-7 valued cards, the information described the playing conditions of a multi-deck game in an overcrowded casino.
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The casinos play using Dealer Strategy, which is hitting every hand to 17. The casinos, also, use Multiple Decks of cards and minimal shuffling. In addition, the casinos remove busted hands immediately, and place them in the Discard Tray. Lastly, the casinos crowd the tables (i.e., offer few tables with less than four players), all of these tactics produce long runs of either high or low cards. This, in turn, lowers the Break Ratio of the dealer. Computer simulation of blackjack predicts that a dealer Break Ratio of 1 dealer break to every 3.5 hands should occur, but the casinos have succeeded in subverting the game to favour Dealer Strategy, by decreasing his breaking frequency.
The long runs of high or low cards are what are referred to as clumps or clumping. By observing these batches of cards, a player has a better chance of knowing what the next cards might be.
From there two entry criteria are recommended. They are Dealer Break Ratio and Average Dealer Point Count. The dealer needs to be breaking at least 2 out of every 10 hands to play. The dealer also must not be getting many more than 2 hands of 20 or 21 to play. A point count is come up with from these two factors, which I will not get too far into since the material is not my own, and is being marketed as we speak.
Now the cards are described as either high or low cards, and the point here is to determine what the dealers hole card is. If the two cards dealt before the dealers hole card are both either high or low, chances are so is the dealer hole card in a clumped game. Now if there is no pattern to the cards, it is advised to play Basic Strategy, something I can get into quite easily.
The system is complete with excellent diagrams. Here is an example that deals with hole card play.
This information can also help you with decisions about your hit cards. One of the better players that uses Clumping recommends sitting at first base for this reason. He is also a very good counter and uses that information to enhance his overall play.
Another pattern mentioned is called a Zipper. This is when two batches of cards are shuffled together and produce a high low high low pattern instead of batches of low or high only.
Now betting strategy is covered in a simple fashion. No fancy calculations, just simple observation from the first or second seat at the table.
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If the last three cards were high cards and the last card was a ten value card place your high bet on the table. If the card was any other value than a ten we would place our low bet on the table. What is important now, is that you understand that you are looking to bet more when the last three cards in the prior round indicate the start of a run of high cards.
At times when I had been playing 6 and 8 deck for hours at a time I often thought it didn't matter what I did as long as I played Basic Strategy, watched my count and my money and had a good time. I longed for 1 and 2 deck games and finally made my way to Las Vegas and made my wish come true. Like many people who have travelled there, I have free rooms and food waiting for me, but I also make money playing down there.
Much of what Clumping preaches is about game conditions. A lot of it is good information aside from the theory behind the wash and shuffle creating batches of high or low cards. Although a computer has a hard time creating the exact conditions of a real game, there are some people working hard at this to help validate what is happening with these 6 and 8 deck games. Along with all of this, basic sound advice about bankroll and bet size still applies to every player.
To all of the readers of this article, my advice is to observe for yourself what is happening at the tables, and give this approach a chance if you wish. Maybe with your low bets out you can watch for a clump and predict your hit strategy, or see how often you are right about the dealer hole card. Add this to your bag of tricks if you wish, and combine it with all of your other skills. Select your tables wisely, count your cards, use your indices, and watch for patterns that give away important clues that may be able to make you more money than you are right now with what you are doing.
For further information about Clumping and Alternative Blackjack, feel free to contact Keith Smith at keith@keithsmith.com or drop by http://www.winningways.com to participate in discussions regarding this subject.
If you have a system you would like reviewed, please feel free to E-Mail me with your request at blakjack@idirect.com
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