Sports Betting: Removing the Mystery of All Those Numbers

Why is a blackjack player writing about onLine sports betting? When Casino Toronto got in contact with me I was quick to inform them that I am one of Toronto's best blackjack players. They listened. I told them about my book Aces and Faces Blackjack. They listened. I told them about my interest in sports betting. They took me up on the sports betting article, and asked me for a second article on onLine jackpots. They asked me to explain and simplify all of the numbers that sports players will see at their odds page. I told them that would be easy, and that I may give them more than they are asking for. Let's get at it!

MAVERICKS VS KINGS \| Sat. May 4, 2002 6:30pm
Team	Money	Line	Total
Sacramento Kings	-110	-2	OVER 205
Dallas Mavericks	+110	+2	UNDER 205

The best way I can think of explaining sports numbers is to use an example. The above line is for a basketball game. Team is self-explanatory. The Kings are playing the Mavericks. The team on the bottom is playing at home. Now go to the right end and look at Total. We can see that the odds maker feels the game will end up around 205 points. This is the total score of both teams. Now look at the Line. The odds maker feels that the Kings will beat the Mavericks by 2 points or one basket. We are laying or giving points when we bet the favored team, and getting points when we bet the underdog.

From this we can see that the odds maker is telling us the game will end somewhere around 103 or 104 for the Kings and 101 or 102 for the Mavericks. The odds maker is so good at what he does, many people feel that it is next to impossible to beat him often enough to make any money betting sports. Are they right? For the most part they are absolutely right. Not just because the odds maker is better at handicapping than you and I can be, but because the odds makers have a built in cushion to protect the sports books with. If they think that team A and B are equal in every sense, they will pay you $1.00 for each bet of $1.10 you place. Team A beats team B, the sports book took two $1.10 bets and pays out one $1.00 win and made a dime on two bets, around a 4.55% take. If the book takes $10,000,000 in bets for a super bowl, this works out to $450,000.

To bet on the final total of the game going over or under 205, or bet the line -2 for the fave or +2 for the dog, you will have to place $1.10 to win $1.00. Now look at the column called Money. You will see the Kings at -110 and the Maves at +110. This is what is called the money line. We still need to bet $1.10 on the Kings to win $1.00, but if we bet the Maves we can bet $1.00 and win $1.10. We are no longer giving or getting extra points, we are giving or getting extra money and betting that the team will win without any points added or subtracted from the final total of the game.

As you can see, the above game is a pretty even game. Now I will show you an imaginary line that I have put together that is far from even. The Montreal football team is favored to win by 7 points or one touch down over the Toronto team.

TORONTO VS MONTREAL \| Sat. Oct X, 2002 8:00pm
Team	Money	Line	Total
Toronto	+250	+7	OVER 48
Montreal	-300	-7	UNDER 48

We can take 7 points by betting Toronto or lay 7 points by betting for the favored Montreal team. Again, we bet $110 to win $100. The same applies to the over and under bets. If we bet the money line we don't get or give any points. We can risk $300 on Montreal to win $100 or bet $100 on Toronto to win $250. The bigger these numbers get the bigger the difference between the two numbers. There is a $50 difference between $250 and $300 instead of the $20 between the -110 and +110 in the previous example. The odds maker is making sure that the book will get their cut of the action, no matter who wins or loses the game.

There are a lot of sports bettors that like to look for something I like to call "World Wide Weapons" to bet on. Tiger Woods, the Williams sisters, the LA Lakers, and the Detroit Red Wings come to mind. Unbeatable, period. Sort of. The odds maker knows as much or more than we do about these teams and players, and you will have to pay to play them. You can expect to be betting into lines like -300 (betting $300 to win $100) or giving away tons of points, baskets, and pucks to bet $110 to win $100. The odds maker knows that they are going to have to offer you something on the other side to get you to bet against him, but is he offering you enough to take it? You have to ask yourself, "Do you feel lucky?"

Luck has nothing to do with this. It is pure mathematics and probability. This spring the Toronto Maple Leafs faced the Ottawa Senators in the NHL play-offs. These two teams were as even a match as you could get. The line kept moving back and forth for each game based on where the two teams were playing and what happened during the previous game. Total rubbish. I bet the money line on the team that was considered the underdog. Ottawa +120, then Toronto +110, then Toronto +120, then Ottawa +115. Now at the end of the season I bet on the "World Wide Weapons" the Detroit Red Wings. I bet that they would win the series over the Carolina Hurricanes, who had disposed of Toronto in the semi-finals. Detroit was going for -270 ($270 bet will win $100), but I found a place where I could lay $217 to win $100. Much of getting a good bet is by line shopping. Think about it. Why risk $270 when you only have to risk $217? And when betting dogs, why take +130 when you can get +135 at another book?

I hope that I have simplified the numbers of sports betting for you. Once you get an idea of what all of the numbers mean, you will start to get a feel for which side of these opportunities your money will best serve you. I hope to write about that in the near future.