Net Betting
by Rob McGarvey
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Net betting is not a new idea, but it is not often written about or described in a useable winning method. Blackjack is beatable, everyone knows this, and around this solid knowledge net betting will be discussed.
Using a card count, the player will join a game and begin to play. As usual, small bets are placed at 0 and below, larger bets at 1 and above. Using an example, let's say we have a player who sits down with 40 red units who has a bankroll of $10,000. The player plays perfect basic and 18 advanced plays, bets $10 at 1, $5 below that. If the game is going well the player may need to do nothing more than keep playing. If not, then net betting can be used within the Kelly Criterion to regain any loss and create a winning session.
The player finds themself down 5 units when the count begins to climb. Calculating the value of each point in the player's count at between .25% and .30% at +2, bets up to $50 or $60 are reasonable for a low risk of ruin. The player can now bet 6 units ($30) at +2 and play to win. This is 1 unit more than the player is down, and as conservative a method of net betting there is. If the hand is a winner, the player is up 1 unit, checks the count, and caries on with the game. In the case of a loss, the next bet can be 12 units ($60) only if the count calls for it, or another $30 bet can be placed dividing the net loss in two to be recouped later.
In one way, net betting is a short term approach to the game of Blackjack. "If I can win more hands than I lose and have $300 to spend after diner tonight, I will be happy". By counting and only placing any required net bets to regain your losses within the scope of your bankroll, a long term approach is combined to the net betting. Doubling your 10K roll will take longer, no question, but it should be a much steadier climb than a full Kelly approach.
Here are the maximum net bets for the appropriate true counts:
+1 .25 $25max
+2 .50 $50
+3 .75 $75
+4 1.0 $100
+5 1.25 $100 caps out at a total of 1% of total 10K roll
By betting more only when the count calls for it, the player can use some progressive betting patterns and make them actually work. For instance, the most dangerous progression of all The Martingale (double after each loss until you win) could be used this way.
You bet $5 at a 0 count and lose. The count goes to +1 and stays there until your bet has climbed to $25, the maximum for your bankroll and that count. If you lose and you need to make a $50 bet but the count has dropped, you need to wait for a +2 count. The sequence stalls until the conditions call for a $50 bet. In the mean time, a few $5 hands might be played and won before the +2 comes along, and a smaller bet than $50 would do. It can take a bit of keeping track of, but it gives you a good reason to keep separate piles of chips in front of you.
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