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CLIMATE CHANGE
A lay presentation by Leonard Surges
Prayer
May the words from my mouth, and the meditations in all our hearts, be ever acceptable in your sight O Lord, our strength and our Redeemer.
Some of you may know that I am a different kind of environmental advocate: one who works within a business to identify and address issues, including climate change. I was asked some time ago to clarify sources of greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions that may contribute to human-induced climate change, and how individuals could take action if they wish.
A prior homily by Yvonne Double: shared her deep faith and environmental concern, particularly with respect to climate change, calling for Canada to ratify the Kyoto Protocol.
This presents for me a dual dilemma: firstly, many in the congregation today did not hear Yvonne speak; secondly, I share many of her views while holding a different perspective on others.
Polls consistently indicate that Canadians are concerned about this issue and favour ratification, but reveal limited understanding of the sources of emissions. Canadians see this is a problem that governments and industry should address, but do not appreciate the effect of their own daily decisions.
It is not my wish to engage in a scientific or political debate—instead I ask you to focus on areas of agreement, prayerfully considering your personal lifestyle and how you can take personal responsibility for reducing resource consumption and atmospheric emissions.
Let me begin with what I see as a biblical bias for action, based on our responsibility as stewards of God’s creation. I will touch on the science, the implications and the magnitude of the challenge before closing with some examples of practical actions you can take.
Genesis 1:26-29
Then God said, "Let us make humankind in our image, according to our likeness; and let them have dominion over the fish of the sea, and over the birds of the air, and over the cattle, and over all the wild animals of the earth, and over every creeping thing that creeps upon the earth.
So God created humankind in his image, in the image of God he created them; male and female he created them.
God blessed them, and God said to them, "Be fruitful and multiply, and fill the earth and subdue it; and have dominion over the fish of the sea and over the birds of the air and over every living thing that moves upon the earth." God said, "See, I have given you every plant yielding seed that is upon the face of all the earth, and every tree with seed in its fruit; you shall have them for food. . . . And it was so."
But with our privileged position comes a responsibility to use God’s abundance wisely and equitably.
Luke 16:10-12
In the parable of the dishonest manager, Jesus warns:
"Whoever is faithful in a very little is faithful also in much; and whoever is dishonest in a very little is dishonest also in much. If then you have not been faithful with the dishonest wealth, who will entrust to you the true riches? And if you have not been faithful with what belongs to another, who will give you what is your own?"
Matthew 13:24-30
Today’s Gospel Reading, the Parable of Weeds among the Wheat also reminds us that at the Last Day we will be judged according to our actions.
SCIENCE
Life as we know it could not exist on earth without the greenhouse effect, which increases surface temperatures by reducing re-radiation of solar energy.
The Kyoto Protocol rests on a theory, supported by model predictions and some observational data, that rising atmospheric concentrations of carbon dioxide and other GHGs (arising mainly from fossil fuel combustion) will cause climate changes, leading to extreme weather events, rising sea levels and species losses.
The media regularly reports statements to the effect that temperatures are rising, and that attribute extreme weather events including storms, droughts, ice storms to climate change.
This raises two key scientific questions: is the climate changing, and if so is it due to human activity (in particular human-induced emissions of greenhouse gases)?
Dr. Tim Patterson, a leading climate researcher and professor of earth systems evolution at Carleton University, writes in the National Post of July 15th:
[The full text is reproduced here while selected excerpts were presented on July 21st.]
Climate change is nothing new
Tim Patterson
National Post
Monday, July 15, 2002
As a scientist involved in paleoclimate research, I am concerned by much of the pro-Kyoto rhetoric coming from the federal government, environmental lobby groups and many in the media. They seem to not understand the tremendous natural variability in our planet's climate system. Even a cursory examination of the climate record reveals how ridiculous it is to blame every heat wave, drought, Antarctic iceberg or bout of extreme weather on human-induced global warming.
Indeed, the only thing constant about climate is change. Natural climate changes have gone on for as long as our planet has existed and will continue to do so. The big challenge facing scientists is determining how to distinguish natural climate variation from possible climate change brought on by human activity.
Plate tectonics, mountain building, ocean currents, variation in Earth's orbit and greenhouse gases have all contributed to causing 30 distinct ice ages in the past 2 million years. Recent glacial periods have lasted about 100,000 years each and have been interrupted by brief warmer periods known as "interglacials", typically lasting about 15,000 years. We are near the end of one of these interglacials right now and so sometime in the next 5,000 years another ice age will return, burying Canada under a kilometre of ice.
Superimposed on these massive climate cycles are lesser events such as the Little Ice Age, a cold episode that persisted from the 14th to late 19th centuries and caused great suffering, as crops often failed due to the cold. The 0.6 degree Celsius increase in global temperature over the past century marks a return to more normal conditions for this epoch. There are numerous short-term drivers of climate that can cause events like the Little Ice Age. The influences of the sun and water vapour, the most abundant greenhouse gas, are the most important.
Besides the regular seasons we experience due to the tilt of the Earth's axis and our planet's movement around the sun, the total amount of energy released by the sun is also variable-this is a major driver of longer-term climate change. In fact, the geologic record shows a direct correlation between solar activity and the earth's climate.
Greenhouse gases such as water vapour and, to a much lesser extent, methane and carbon dioxide, also affect our climate. Earth's temperature is maintained by a balance between incoming solar radiation and the infrared radiation transmitted back to space. Clouds and aerosols trap reflected radiation from the surface, causing a natural greenhouse effect-without this, global average temperatures would be 33 degrees lower than they are and we would be locked in a perpetual ice age.
Contrary to the rhetoric of the Kyoto Accord, carbon dioxide (CO2) is only a minor contributor to climate change. Of all the greenhouse gases, simple water vapour constitutes 99% of the total and so is the major climate driver. During the El Niño event of 1997/1998, global temperature temporarily spiked by 1 degree in only a few months, an increase that was driven by increased water vapour in the atmosphere.
Through most of the last 500 million years CO2 levels have been much higher than today-up to 18 times higher at times. Citing analysis of ancient atmospheres found in Antarctic ice core air bubbles, Kyoto supporters point out that CO2 variations have closely paralleled temperature. However, CO2 levels rose and peaked several hundred years after temperature did. Consequently, temperature drives changes in CO2, not the other way around.
During the last 300 years CO2 concentrations have risen about 30% due mostly to fossil fuel combustion and deforestation. However, the increase in CO2 cannot be linked to global warming. The incorrect reliance on CO2 as a major climate driver within many computer models may partially explain why these models have consistently failed to reproduce actual climate changes and why their predictions of the future are so suspect.
We are at least 10 years away from being able to make meaningful predictions of the influence, if any, of human activity on our climate. Until then, we should focus more on the important scientific research needed in this field and not make draconian changes to our standard of living based on such an immature and developing science.
IMPLICATIONS
While I believe that a cautious approach is warranted, there are many practical steps that can and should be taken NOW. Many are "no regrets" measures with clear social and/or economic benefits.
THE CHALLENGE
Canada’s Kyoto target is to reduce average annual emissions during the period 2008 to 2012 to 6% below the 1990 level. It sounds deceptively easy, doesn’t it?
The principal drivers of GHG emissions are population and economic activity (GDP); other factors include energy per unit of GDP and the GHG intensity of energy.
Canada’s national emissions have grown since 1990 as a result of steady population and economic growth, partly offset by reductions in energy per unit of GDP and GHG intensity per unit of energy. The challenge for Canada is intensified because GHG intensity per unit of energy is lower than in most other countries because much of our electricity is generated from hydro or nuclear energy.
Over the 20-year period from 1990 to 2010, rates of growth are likely to be on the order of 1.7% for population and 2.5% for GDP per capita. In order to achieve the Kyoto target of –6% or –0.3%/y solely through domestic action, it would be necessary for GHG emissions per unit of GDP to shrink at a rate of 4.5% per year (or 90% over the entire period). Normal technological development and capital stock turnover reduces energy intensity by about 1% per year.
There are ways to square the Kyoto books and achieve Canada’s target for the first commitment period, but they require substantial new taxes and large capital outflows, most likely to the Russian Federation.
An alternative approach would focus those resources on other priorities, including energy conservation and the development and application of more energy efficient technologies.
SOURCES AND OPPORTUNITIES
Canada’s Third National Report on Climate Change: Actions to Meet Commitments Under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change, 2001, shows that the sources of emissions in 1999 were distributed as follows: transportation 27.0%, electricity 17.0%, fossil fuel production 16.7%, industry 15.9%, agriculture, land use change and forestry 9.0%, residential 6.1%, commercial and institutional 4.1%, others 4.0%.
Residential emissions represent only direct emissions for fuel combustion in homes. About two-thirds of transportation emissions are from personal vehicles. Household demand also drives a significant share of emissions from electricity, fossil fuel production and other sectors. In short, if there is a problem then individual Canadians are a big part of the problem and must also be a part of the solution. Our energy consumption reflects daily lifestyle decisions and past choices about where we live and about long-lived vehicles, appliances, construction, etc.
What can you do? Time permits only a few examples.
Transportation. Consider needs and alternatives. When purchasing or leasing a vehicle, consider fuel consumption and costs. Have your engine tuned-up and maintain proper tire inflation. Avoid idling: more than 10 seconds wastes fuel, and in any case Mississauga has a by-law in place to limit idling. Consider use of public transit, walking or cycling where appropriate.
Household. Open and close windows and blinds to take advantage of passive heating and cooling. Adjust your thermostat to reduce heating and cooling costs (especially during the summer when electrical energy consumption peaks). Install a programmable thermostat. Change furnace filters and have your furnace maintained. Insulate hot water lines. Ensure weather stripping and caulking is in good condition and seal leaks. Consider adding insulation or upgrading windows and doors. Install energy-efficient lighting. When replacing an appliance, consider buying a more energy-efficient model. Did you know that a front-loading washer reduces water and detergent use as well as energy consumption? Think twice about keeping your old refrigerator in service when you replace it! Reduce waste by assessing the need for purchases. Participate in recycling: it not only reduces waste disposal but conserves resources and is a preferred strategy to reduce the energy intensity of material production processes.
CONCLUSION
There is a political dynamic that equates ratification of the Kyoto Protocol with action, and opposition with inaction. Whatever your views on ratification might be, I challenge you to consider how you personally can make better use of resources, including water, energy and materials. If you’re not part of the solution, you’re part of the problem!